Lions at Packers picks: Point spread, total, player props, trends for ‘Monday Night Football’ in Week 2
The Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions are set to wrap up Week 2 in the NFL when these NFC North squads go toe-to-toe during “Monday Night Football.” Both clubs are still searching for their first win of the season. Aaron Rodgers’ Packers were upset at the hands of the Saints in the opener, managing just a field goal in the loss. Meanwhile, Detroit fell to the San Francisco 49ers, but depending on when you placed your bet they were able to pull off a ridiculous backdoor cover.
It’s that betting angle that we’ll be dissecting here. Below, we’re going to go over all the different gambling aspects that this Week 2 finale has in store for us. We’ll dive into the line movement throughout the week, take a look at some player props and, of course, give you our picks for how we see this game unfolding.
All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook.
How to watch
Date: Monday, Sept. 20 | Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Location: Lambeau Field (Green Bay, Wisconsin)
TV: ESPN | Stream: fuboTV (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Packers -11.5, O/U 48.5
Green Bay Packers
Despite the lackluster start to the year, there’s seems to be some confidence that the Packers will be able to enjoy a strong bounce-back win over Detroit. Green Bay opened as a 10.5 point favorite in this divisional matchup and the number has only risen as the week has progressed. By Wednesday, the number moved to -11 and is now -11.5 heading into this head-to-head.
The pick: Packers -11. The Lions did show some resiliency during their backdoor cover last week, but you can make the case that only occurred because the 49ers started to pack it in early. Prior to that, Detroit showed us that their defense can be had, which Aaron Rodgers and co. will likely look to exploit. Against San Francisco last week, Detroit gave up 442 yards of total offense. They also allowed 31 points prior to halftime. This is as solid of a rebound spot as Rodgers and the Packers will find.
Key trend: Packers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a straight-up loss.
This total opened at 49.5 and quickly took a tumble down to 48 no more than five hours after it debuted. It hung at that number for the bulk of the week but has rebounded slightly, moving up to 48.5 by the weekend.
The pick: Under 48.5. While a much better effort offensively is expected by the Packers, they could look to lean on Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillion some in this game, especially with Detroit struggling against the run in the opener (131 yards on 4.7 yards per carry). Controlling the clock through the run game does limit the number of scoring opportunities that could be available to both clubs in this head-to-head. Meanwhile, Detroit’s offense doesn’t have the talent at the receiver position for me to have confidence that they’ll be able to help knock this total over.
Key trend: Under is 4-1 in their last five meetings.
Aaron Rodgers props
Passing touchdowns: 2.5 (Over +110, Under -140)Passing yards: 280.5 (Over -115, Under -115)Pass attempts: 33.5 (Over -125, Under -105)Completions: 24.5 (Over -125, Under -105)Longest pass completion: 38.5 (Over -115, Under -115)Interceptions: 0.5 (Over +210, Under -260)
The Over 280.5 passing yards is the Rodgers prop that I would target out of this bunch. The Lions secondary is arguably the worst in the league with Jimmy Garoppolo getting 314 yards through the air on just 17 completions. Rodgers was under this total (averaged 265 passing yards) in the two games he faced Detroit last year, but this could be game where he looks to right the ship. I also don’t mind taking a look at the Over 2.5 passing touchdowns at +110. Following losses last year, Rodgers averaged four passing touchdowns per game.
Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over +115, Under -145)Passing yards: 254.5 (Over -115, Under -115)Rushing yards: 8.5 (Over -125, Under -105)Pass attempts: 34.5 (Over -130, Under +100)Completions: 23.5 (Over -115, Under -115)Longest pass completion: 36.5 (Over -110, Under -120)Interceptions: 0.5 (Over -160, Under +130)
If you think the Lions will be trailing in this game as the spread projects, the Over 34.5 pass attempts for Goff makes sense. Not only will Detroit likely be forced to pass its way back into this matchup, but the dink-and-dunk passing attack through the runnings backs and tight ends also increases the likelihood of fewer chunk plays and more passing opportunities for Goff. The Under 36.5 yards on Goff’s longest pass completion is another prop worth considering.
Player props to consider
Jamaal Williams total receiving yards: Over 18.5 (-110). Williams has a clear role in the passing game with nine targets in Week 1. If he even comes close to that target share again and is as efficient as he was last week (eight catches), he’ll fly past this total.
Aaron Jones total receptions: Over 2.5 (-120). Jamaal Williams is now in a Lions uniform, opening up more pass-catching opportunities for Jones. The opener against New Orleans was a dud all the way around, but Jones did catch both of his targets and should see those increase as we move forward into the year.
T.J. Hockenson anytime touchdown (+200). The passing game runs through Hockenson, who saw 10 targets in the opener and caught a six-yard touchdown in the second quarter. If the Lions get into the red zone, Goff will be looking this way.