Chiefs vs. Chargers predictions: Odds, total, player props, pick, how to watch ‘Sunday Night Football’

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The Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers will wrap up Sunday’s Week 11 action when these AFC West rivals square off at SoFi Stadium in prime time. 

Entering this week, the Chiefs are rolling on a three-game winning streak that has them in first place in the division and atop the conference. As for the Chargers, they have remained in the playoff hunt despite dealing with several injuries, particularly to the wide receiver room. That said, Justin Herbert could be getting back Keenan Allen and Mike Williams after both practiced fully on Friday. 

While the Chiefs may be atop the standings, they haven’t been the better team to bet on so far this season between these division foes. K.C. is 4-5 ATS coming into Week 11, while the Chargers are 6-3 ATS. 

With all that in mind, we’ll specifically be looking at the different betting angles that this game has to offer. Along with the spread and total, we’ll also take a look at several player props and hand in our picks for how we see this showdown unfolding. 

All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook. 

How to watch

Date: Sunday, Nov. 20 | Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
Location: SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
NBC | Stream: fuboTV (try for free)  
Follow: CBS Sports App 
Odds: Chiefs -5, O/U 52

Line movement

Featured Game | Los Angeles Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs

The lookahead on this line had the Chiefs as a 5.5-point favorite, but that jumped up to Chiefs -7, likely due to the uncertainty surrounding Los Angeles’ top receivers. Once there became some clarity on their statuses, we did see this line move back toward the Chargers and currently sits at Chiefs -5. 

The pick: Chargers +5. Los Angeles has historically played the Chiefs tight. Justin Herbert is 3-1 ATS in his head-to-head matchups with Patrick Mahomes. Each of those games has also been determined by six points or fewer. Herbert is also 5-0 ATS as a 5-point underdog or more in his career.  When you account for that success and the discrepancy at the wide receiver position, things do trend favorably toward the Chargers. All signs point to both Allen and Williams returning for this game, while K.C. will be without Mecole Hardman (injured reserve) and JuJu Smith-Schuster (concussion). All that is enough to take the points here. 

Key trend: Chiefs are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games, following a straight-up win. 

Over/Under total

There’s been slight movement with the total. After opening at 50, it briefly dipped to 49.5 before moving back up a half point. Almost in lockstep with the line moving once — there was some clarity revolving around Allen and Williams — the total also bumped up as high as 52, where it currently sits on the eve of this matchup. 

The pick: Over 52. The Under is 3-1 in the previous four matchups between Herbert and Mahomes. That said, dating to last season, their games have averaged 55.6 points and they have specifically gone over this number in two of the three matchups. Mahomes also played particularly well in divisional road games, owning a 105.4 passer rating and a 30-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. 

Key trend: Over is 7-1 in the Chiefs’ last eight road games.

Patrick Mahomes props

Passing touchdowns: 2.5 (Over +114, Under -157)Passing yards: 288.5 (Over -117, Under -117)Rushing yards: 27.5 (Over -103, Under -133)Completions: 25.5 (Over -108, Under -127)Longest pass completion: 38.5 (Over -123, Under -111)Interceptions: 0.5 (Over -106, Under -129)

Yes, Mahomes is down a couple of receivers, but that shouldn’t prevent him from topping this passing yards total. He’s gone over this number in five straight games and the Chiefs have no running game to speak of, which will likely put the ball in Mahomes’ hands even more. It’s also worth noting that Mahomes has gone over this rushing total in his last two games.  

Justin Herbert props

Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over -179, Under +129)Passing yards: 276.5 (Over -117, Under -117)Rushing yards: 8.5 (Over -121, Under -113)Longest pass completion: 36.5 (Over -117, Under -117)Interceptions: 0.5 (Over -129, Under -106)

As we noted, Herbert plays the Chiefs well and is averaging over two passing touchdowns per game in his previous four matchups against Mahomes. With Williams and Allen expected back into the receiving rotation on Sunday, looking for Herbert to throw at least two touchdowns seems like a solid way to lean. He’s also averaging 291 passing yards per game against Mahomes in his career. If he follows that average, he’d fly over his passing yards prop as well. 

Player props to consider

Kadarius Toney anytime touchdown (+145). Kansas City is going to be down a couple of receivers and Toney is coming off a mini-breakout game against the Jaguars last week. He caught four of his five targets for 57 yards and a touchdown, while also rushing twice for 33 yards. The Chiefs seem to be putting the ball in his hands in a number of different ways, which gives us even more opportunity to cash on this anytime touchdown prop. With an expected uptick in snaps, Toney has the gamebreaking ability to find the end zone. 

Jerick McKinnon total receiving yards: Over 25.5 (-113). McKinnon has been a go-to target for Mahomes over the last few weeks, averaging eight targets a game over that stretch. He’s also gone over this receiving yards total in four straight games coming into Week 11.

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