In Corbin Burnes We Trust – Until The Betting Market Catches Up To Him – Plus Other Best Bets For Monday – NewsOpener


Ladies and gentlemen, it is the Monday of NFL Draft week, and that means we are deep in the dark forest of NFL Draft Smokescreen season. The latest batch of mist meant to obscure our view came this morning.

That was when reports surfaced of division within the San Francisco 49ers. According to a report from the NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport, the 49ers have narrowed down their choice to either Mac Jones or Trey Lance. This report came out around the same time another report from ESPN claimed that the 49ers’ personnel department wants Lance, but Shanahan wants Jones.

In other words, you are supposed to believe that the 49ers swapped firsts with Miami this season and sent the Dolphins two future first-round picks to move up to No. 3 not only unaware of which player would be available, but all while they weren’t sure who they were going to take. And now, a few days before the draft, they still don’t know.

So, either the 49ers are incredibly stupid, or they just don’t want anybody to know what their plans are. I don’t know about you, but I’m leaning toward the latter, though I’m sure the NFL Content Machine will choose the former.

Now let’s go get this money.

All times Eastern, and all odds via William Hill Sportsbook


🔥 The Hot Ticket

Marlins at Brewers, 7:40 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV
The Pick: Brewers (-160)
: Have you heard of Corbin Burnes? No, I’m not talking about the actor who played third baseman Roger Dorn in Major League. That’s Corbin Bernsen. This is Corbin Burnes, the pitcher for the Milwaukee Brewers who is freaking awesome and absolutely carrying my fantasy team at the moment.

Here’s a quick recap of Burnes’ season so far: He’s made four starts and has an ERA of 0.37 after allowing only eight hits and one run in 24.1 innings. Oh, and he has 40 strikeouts in those 24.1 innings. Of course, people are very quick to mention how Burnes has 40 strikeouts and no walks, but they ignore that he’s hit three batters, so while he hasn’t walked anybody the traditional way, it’s not like he has perfect control.

Still, he’s basically unhittable at the moment, but he’s not being priced like the more prominent aces in baseball — yet. Until he is, I’m blindly backing him and the Brewers in his starts.

Key Trend: Burnes has an ERA of 0.37 through his first four starts.

Here’s what SportsLine is saying about the game: The Advanced Computer Model isn’t a big fan of anything in this game, but it’s favorite play is on the total.


💰 The Picks


USATSI

⚾ MLB

Twins at Indians, 6:10 p.m. | TV: ESPN+
The Pick: Indians (+115) — 
As somebody with a couple of futures out on the Minnesota Twins this season, I’m not pleased with what I’ve seen from them to start the season. They’re only 7-13, and it doesn’t seem to be the results of anything flukey. They’re playing how their record suggests, with pitching being a serious problem. But the market hasn’t caught on to that yet.

In this matchup, I find value on Cleveland. Indians starter Zach Plesac doesn’t have the dazzling strikeout stuff that Minnesota’s Jose Berrios does, but he’s doing a better job of limiting hard contact and has the superior walk rate of 2.8% (Berrios is at 9.4%). Cleveland also has the superior bullpen, which should help cover for an overall lack of firepower on offense.

Key Trend: The Twins are only 2-8 in their last 10 games as favorites.

⚽ Champions League

Real Madrid vs. Chelsea, Tuesday, 3 p.m. | TV: CBS Sports Network/Paramount+
The Pick: Under 2.5 (-150) — 
It’s hard to argue with the results Thomas Tuchel has had at Chelsea since taking over, but it’s harder to argue that it’s been enjoyable to watch. Chelsea’s defending has been so good that it’s made every match feel like a 90-minute slog to the finish line. So far, 11 of Chelsea’s 21 matches under Tuchel have featured one goal or fewer. Chelsea has allowed only nine goals in those 21 matches, and five came against West Brom in a match that will surely stand out as one of the strangest results of the season. 

Meanwhile, Real Madrid is in the midst of a goal drought. The three goals Real Madrid scored in a 3-0 win over Cadiz last week are the only three goals it has scored in its last four matches. There was the scoreless draw against Liverpool to finish the quarterfinals, and there have been two more in league play against Getafe and Betis. More importantly, Real Madrid isn’t allowing goals either, as it has posted clean sheets in four straight.

Key Trend: Chelsea’s 21 matches under Thomas Tuchel have averaged 1.71 goals scored per match.

🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: Looking to place some bets on the NFL Draft? Our expert R.J. White tells you what you need to know before Thursday night.


💸 The DFS Rundown

Building Blocks

PG: Mike Conley, Jazz
SG: Paul George, Clippers
SF: Jimmy Butler, Heat
PF: Kristaps Porzingis, Mavs
C: Rudy Gobert, Jazz

Value Plays

PG: Facundo Campazzo, Nuggets
SG: Dwayne Bacon, Magic
SF: Cedi Osman, Cavs
PF: Isaiah Roby, Thunder
C: Jarrett Allen, Cavs

Full lineup advice

Get winning NBA DFS picks from SportsLine pros Mike McClure and Jacob Gibbs. McClure has won almost $2 million in daily Fantasy, while Gibbs crushed the NBA last season, cashing around 65 percent of the time in cash games and nearly 45 percent of the time in tournaments. See their DraftKings advice and FanDuel lineups here.  


 🏀 NBA Parlay

Mixing it up a bit tonight with a five-team money line parlay in the NBA. It pays out at +145

  • 76ers (-950)
  • Lakers (-600)
  • Raptors (-700)
  • Jazz (-550)
  • Mavs (-245)



Leave A Reply

Your email address will not be published.