NFL Week 4 early odds: Buccaneers road favorites vs. Patriots as Tom Brady returns to New England

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Week 3 carried the baton of an action-packed first two weeks of the 2021 season and didn’t disappoint. You want a 109-yard kick-6? You got it. You want Justin Tucker to hit an NFL-record 66-yard field goal to beat the Lions as time expired? You got it. You want Aaron Rodgers marching down the field with just seconds left in the game to set up a game-winning field goal against San Francisco? You sure as heck got it. 

Even though we still have Dallas and Philadelphia left on the Week 3 slate for “Monday Night Football,” it’s never too early to look ahead to Week 4 and what the oddsmakers’ early impressions are of that collection of games. Below, you’ll find the opening lines for all of Week 4 and a breakdown of each contest. 

Week 4 early odds

(All lines from Caesars Sportsbook, all games on Sunday unless noted)

Opening line: Bengals -7.5

For a minute, it looked like the Jaguars were going to be able to hang around with the Cardinals and even had a lead going into halftime. However, a Pick-6 by Trevor Lawrence in the closing seconds of the third quarter helped spring Arizona back into the lead and there was no looking back. Meanwhile, Joe Burrow and the Bengals are fresh off their second win of the season after upsetting the Steelers on the road. Pittsburgh was admittedly banged up in this game, but it was impressive that the Cincy offensive line turned in a clean outing with Burrow not sacked once. Given where each of these teams are at, bettors could be leaning towards laying the points with the Bengals here. After all, Lawrence has turned the ball over seven times through the first three weeks. Cincinnati is also 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games. 

Opening line: Titans -7.5

This is a big number to be giving up as a road favorite, but the Jets haven’t given much reason to bettors to roll with them +7.5. Not only is New York 0-3 to begin the year, but they are also just one of four teams 0-3 ATS to start. Meanwhile, Tennessee has started to find its footing with back-to-back wins essentially on the shoulders of Derrick Henry, who rushed for 113 yards against Indy in Week 3. Tennessee has also played well on the road as of late, owning a 5-1 straight-up record over their last six games away from Nissan Stadium. 

Opening line: Chiefs -6

Surprisingly, the Chiefs are below .500 to start the year and a 0-3 ATS after falling to the Chargers in Week 3. While this is still one of the better teams in the AFC and should be in contention by the time the playoffs roll around, it’ll be curious to see how K.C. deals with this newfound adversity. The oddsmakers don’t seem to be too worried about the Chiefs, making them six-point road favorites against Philadelphia, but how will the public move this line? Kansas City is 0-4 in their last four games as a favorite and 1-5 in their last six as a road favorite.  

Opening line: Cowboys -4.5 

Carolina is just one of two teams in the NFL that are perfect on the season thus far and 3-0 ATS. Dallas can also stay undefeated against the spread if they cover against Philadelphia on Monday night. The Cowboys are the home favorites and this number could rise depending on how they perform in the Week 3 finally, especially with the Panthers dealing with injuries to cornerback Jaycee Horn and running back Christian McCaffrey. Heading into Monday Night Football, Dallas is 5-1 ATS in their last six. Meanwhile, the Panthers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games as a road dog. 

Opening line: Saints -8

For the second straight week, New York lost on a game-winning field goal and will now have to go the rest of the season without starting middle linebacker Blake Martinez, who suffered a torn ACL in Week 3. The Giants also get a Saints team who responded well following a loss in Week 2 as they were able to get a win against the Patriots in Foxborough. Given the struggles in New York along with a number of injuries they were dealt, it’s no surprise to see the Saints as an 8-point favorite. New Orleans should also get some extra juice with this being the first game back at the Superdome following Hurricane Ida. Over their last seven games, the Giants are 2-5 ATS while the Saints are 10-4 ATS in their last 14. 

Opening line: Pick’em

The Vikings got into the win column for the first time this season after upsetting the Seahawks, moving to 2-1 ATS this season. Meanwhile, the Browns defense spoiled Justin Fields’ first career start as they were able to sack the Bears first-round pick nine times in the win. This game opened as a pick’em but has since ticked towards the Browns, making them a 1-point road favorite. Cleveland enters this game with a 4-0 ATS record following a straight-up win and a 5-1 ATS mark in their last six road games. As for the Vikings, they are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight-up win. 

Lions (0-3) at Bears (1-2) 

Opening line: Bears -4

The Lions suffered yet another improbably loss in the franchise’s history on Sunday as Ravens kicker Justin Tucker nailed an NFL-record 66-yarder as time expired to give Baltimore the win. After that gut punch, they’ll now go on the road to face the Bears, who are also reeling from a Week 3 loss. Chicago’s offensive line allowed rookie quarterback Justin Fields to be sacked nine times in the loss on Sunday. If that holds, Lions +4 could prove to be a strong bet by the public, especially with them 2-1 ATS to begin the year.  

Opening line: Bills -17.5

This is the biggest spread of Week 4 and quite possibly the biggest spread we’ll see all season. Josh Allen looked like the MVP-caliber quarterback we saw throughout the 2020 season on Sunday, throwing for 358 yards and four touchdowns, and rushing for another as Buffalo dropped 43 points on Washington. Now, the Bills will square up against rookie Davis Mills and the Texans,  who scored just nine points against Carolina on Thursday Night Football. The lopsidedness of the quarterback play between these two teams is enough to have this spread well into the double-digits. Typically, Buffalo stays hot after big wins. In their last nine games following a straight-up win of 14 or more points, the Bills are 7-1-1 ATS. It’s a big number, but they certainly have the offensive firepower to clear it in a hurry. 

Opening line: Dolphins -2

Despite two sprained ankles, Carson Wentz started for the Colts in Week 3 and was at the helm when they lost to Tennessee. Wentz didn’t look healthy in the losing effort and completed just 19 of his 37 throws for 194 yards. Meanwhile, the Dolphins nearly took down the Raiders in Las Vegas as they went on an 11-0 run in the fourth quarter to force overtime. If the Dolphins can keep that scrappy play up with Jacoby Brissett under center in Week 4, they should have a good chance of covering this two-point spread against a banged-up Colts squad. Miami is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 games following a straight up loss and 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games.  

Washington (1-2) at Falcons (1-2)

Opening line: Pick’em

Washington’s defense hasn’t lived up to the preseason hype and leaves Week 3 after letting Josh Allen and the Bills hang 43 points on them. While the Falcons don’t nearly have the same offensive firepower as Buffalo, Atlanta is coming off its first win of the season after kicking a game-winner against the Giants. Given how even these teams are, it’s no surprise to still see this hanging as a pick’em. That said, the Falcons are 8-2 ATS against teams with a losing record while Washington is coming into Week 4 with a 1-5 ATS record over its last six games. 

Seahawks (1-2) at 49ers (2-1) 

Opening line: 49ers -3

Both of these NFC West rivals are heading into this divisional matchup following a loss. With less than a minute left on the clock, San Francisco allowed Aaron Rodgers and the Packers to march down the field and kick a game-winning field goal on Sunday night. As for Seattle, their contest with the Vikings wasn’t nearly as close as they were blown out, 30-17. This number has already dipped down below the field-goal threshold to San Francisco -2.5. In their last 19 meetings, Seattle is 13-5-1 ATS. 

Cardinals (3-0) at Rams (3-0)

Opening line: Rams -6

The Cardinals never make it easy on bettors. Despite being 3-0 on the season and 2-1 ATS, Arizona has had some nailbiters throughout the early portions of the season, including this past week against Jacksonville. The Cards went into the halftime locker room trailing the Jaguars but were able to rally in the second half courtesy of a Pick-6 thrown by Trevor Lawrence. As for the Rams, they established themselves as legit Super Bowl favorites with a big win over the defending champion Bucs. Despite both of these teams sitting at 3-0 on the year, Los Angeles looks like the sharp bet at -6. The Cardinals are 0-7-1 ATS against the Rams in their last eight meetings and the favorite is 9-1-1 over their last 11 matchups. 

Steelers (1-2) at Packers (2-1) 

Opening line: Packers -7

The Steelers are banged up and Ben Roethlisberger looks like he’s at the end of the road to what has been a Hall of Fame career. Pittsburgh was upset at home by the Bengals and now have to head to Lambeau Field to face the Packers, who are winners of two straight. This number feels like it should be a bit higher than Green Bay -7 and could jump up as the week goes foward. Dating back to last season, Pittsburgh is 3-7 ATS in their last 10. The Packers, meanwhile, are on the opposite end of that spectrum, owning a 5-2 ATS record in their last seven overall. 

Ravens (2-1) at Broncos (3-0) 

Opening line: Broncos -2.5

Denver is just one of two teams currently 3-0 SU and ATS to begin the season and have looked strong with Teddy Bridgewater under center. In Week 3, they didn’t see much resistance from the Jets and it was the Broncos defense that was able to shut them out at Mile High. However, Denver’s biggest test of the season comes in during Week 4 with the Baltimore Ravens. They were able to escape Detroit with a win thanks to Justin Tucker’s new NFL-record 66 yard field goal as time expired. The public does seem to like the Ravens in this spot as this number has already been dragged down to Broncos -1. Baltimore is 6-1 ATS in their seven games as an underdog.  

Buccaneers (2-1) at Patriots (1-2) 

Opening line: Buccaneers -5.5

The game that we’ve all been waiting for: Tom Brady vs. Bill Belichick and the Patriots. Brady heads into Foxborough for the first time as an opponent as a -5.5 point favorite and for good reason. New England’s offense has looks stagnant to begin the year under rookie Mac Jones and the Bucs still have one of the more talented rosters in the NFL, despite a Week 3 loss to the Rams. This advantage should only increase for Tampa Bay as this game gets closer with the public leaning towards Brady finding success against his former club. The Buccaneers are 5-0 ATS following a straight up loss and the Patriots are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games. 

Raiders (3-0) at Chargers (2-1), Monday

Opening line: Chargers -3

The Raiders and Chargers will wrap up Week 4 during “Monday Night Football.” Las Vegas narrowly had its first loss of the season at the hands of the Dolphins but were able to fend them off in overtime. As for the Chargers, they went into Arrowhead Stadium and defeated the Chiefs, so both of these teams have solid momentum heading into the primetime head-to-head. Vegas could have the advantage coming into this matchup as the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these AFC West rivals. 

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